We have all heard of the DMT (Demographic Transition Model), a graphical representation of the interrelationship between birth and death rates and development. However, now there are now somenew players in the world of geographical modelling such as EMT (Epidemiological Transition Model). The introduction of further examination into new transitions stems from the main criticism of the DMT; it's assumption that 'modernisation; is the only form of development. As proved by countries such as India and Vietnam, vast areas of a country may be modernised technologically but this does mean that the development status of the country as a whole is sufficient as factors such as developments in health care, education and nutrition also need to be considered. Transitions is epidemiology and nutrition have been calculated in order to curve this lack of consideration of other factors in a different direction.
In 1971 the Epidemiological Transition Model was formed showing 3 main stages of health; an age of pestilence and famine, an age of receding pandemics and an age of degenerative diseases. Although this model may seem quite dated it still fits in with a global health transition made by the WHO (the World Health Organisation). This transition suggests that infectious diseases (Group 1) are now being replaced by non-communicable diseases (Group 2) which fits in well with the thinking of the EMT, stage 2 which suggests that pandemics due to infectious diseases will reduce.
By 2030, the WHO predicts that death from infectious diseases will decrease further, (excluding AIDS), deaths from group 2 diseases will increase, probably due to these being diseases related to affluent populations. Lastly Group 3 diseases will increase greatly.
This means that with the majority of countries putting most of their money, resources and attention towards Group 1 diseases, may be it is time to rethink this policy and focus more on the prevention of Group 2 or 3 conditions becoming more virulent in populations already under attack from Group 1 diseases. Overall, it seems that a countries health can be modelled and tracked in this way and that lacking to acknowledge their importance could lead to development being compromised.
